In our writings on the Transformation, we state that prevailing standards of living in the developed world will double in ten years and quadruple in twenty years. At this rate, the 13.67 multiple will be reached in 2048. This is a prediction we are willing to endorse. It will be the result of the implementation of state-of-the-art robotics and artificial intelligence deployed within the agricultural and industrial sectors. The inescapable corollary to this is that few jobs will remain untouched and most will simply disappear. In fact, for most people, their whole job category will be eliminated and most likely sooner rather than later. So, it seems, you will need to find something else to do. What you are doing now won't be an option. Even if your job category remains, your employer will not. You will need to find somewhere else and some other way to do it.
In a civilization where nearly half the households will have annual incomes in the millions, it is unlikely that political sentiment will countenance any penury whatsoever. Consequently, we suspect that there will be a stipend for those without sufficient self generated income. It most likely will meet or exceed a level of income that, today, would be considered middle class income. We can imagine that what will be considered the poverty level in twenty years will have quadrupled right along with the quadrupling of average and median incomes. In other words, one person will be guaranteed $40,830 per year, a couple or a custodial parent and child will be guaranteed $72,840 per year and the classic ‘family of four’ will be guaranteed $136,200 per year.
These rates, however, would be subject to some adjustment in order to assist in balancing the labor supply and demand. When the number of people searching for work is less than is required, the level of support provided to those who do not work will decrease, thus encouraging to supplement their income. When the number of people searching for work exceeds what is needed, the level of support will increase.
The middle socioeconomic level will be engaged in service activities that, while automated, retain a human function primarily because humans wish to interact with humans when they are consuming them. Take for example, a fast food restaurant. Even now, we could probably build a restaurant that, through automation and AI, could function without human intervention. However, generally, people would prefer to interact with a person during the ordering, delivering and paying process. The price differential between a $4.00 hamburger in a human mediated fast food restaurant and a $2.65 hamburger at a totally automated restaurant, in a very affluent society, is going to be insufficient to cause the majority of people to frequent the totally automated one
Of course, with a median household income of $760K per year, one may assume that, over time, even a $4.00 personally delivered hamburger is likely to be an endangered species. It will be replaced in most settings with a more leisurely fine dining experience. A $15 fast food bill for an average family today will be proportionately the same as a $190 restaurant tab in 2048. Consequently, we will expect that frequently the purchased meal will involve a chef and maitre d’ overseeing an automated fine dining experience.
From landscaping to interior design to medicine, even if AI programs can perform as well or better than humans, the customer will still want to interact with a person. For example, a landscaper may interview a customer and then go back to his office and create a computer assisted design. The computer did much of the work, but he will present it and, if the customer accepts the design and price, he will arrive with landscaping robots and oversee the work while interacting, again, with the customer.
An AI diagnostic software program may provide the doctor with a list of diagnoses in descending order of probability and suggest further diagnostic tests. Already these programs outperform most doctors. Another AI program may give the doctors a comprehensive list of treatment options with the likely probability of success and suggest possible combinations of treatments. However, no matter how AI assisted, the patient will want to talk to the doctor, ask questions of the doctor and feel reassured by a person, not an AI program.
At the highest socio-economic level will be knowledge professionals, for the most part Polymaths, who will create and communicate visions and apply volition to the social, cultural and economic systems. They will engage in activities that, even if a computer could do them, humans will prefer to retain as their prerogative. This will include great thinkers, pundits and leaders who will teach, present and discuss. It will include great designers who, with the assistance of AI programs, will create new products, new services, comprehensively designed communities, etc. It will include scientists, artists, composers who will drive human progress in a uniquely human way. It will include entrepreneurs who will oversee the automated production processes.
These three categories are arbitrary. Many people will spend portions of their lives in different ones. A person may be on stipend during periods of intense learning, in service activities early in their life and then, over time, find that their productive activities evolve into one or more of the knowledge professions. Additionally, some activities are actually a spectrum that bridges the service sector and the knowledge professions. Many people will engage in both. For example, a person may design clothes but also oversee their robotic manufacture. So, while the trifurcated socio-economic description is basically correct, it is not exactly correct and should not be interpreted too rigidly.
It is manifestly clear, however, that there is not a category designated as ‘employee’, professional level or otherwise. As we all are very aware, manufacturing jobs left developed countries to chase cheap labor in low labor rate locations. Today, we now find that professional jobs are chasing cheap labor in underdeveloped countries. These activities will be returning, but they will not reemploy the previously displaced workers. Rather, they will be automated.
to happen very rapidly. Right now at the larger companies, automated AR and AP software is being installed. From the time of order to receipt to payment, human hands will not touch the process. It is important that everyone Google ‘DARPA 2007 Urban Challenge’ and see what was possible three years ago. Today, the technologies have progressed and the results are amazing. By 2020, anyone who currently makes a living by driving a vehicle will most likely be out of a job. Nearly half the jobs done on a residential new construction site are well within the current robotic technology. Clothing will be custom tailored by robot. We could go on and on, and we will. You may be skeptical. We understand and we will address those reservations as we continue.
Very quickly, because we deal with it elsewhere, we do not expect that there will be an unabated geometric explosion past our income levels due to a 'Singularity'. We believe that the rate of growth in computer technology is abating already. Clock rates on retail computers are not going up. Rather than more powerful CPU's, multi-core computers are being built. While Kurzweil, et al, are their pinning hopes upon carbon nanotube circuitry, the pace of technological development there is already falling behind where it needs to be to continue the geometric progression. It is beginning to appear that computers are reaching technological maturity, at least for now. However, much of what is already possible is not implemented. Consequently, robotics and applied AI will not reach economic maturity at least until 2050.
So, for those who would not only like to learn more about this, but also affiliate, associate and collaborate to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the emerging global, Information Age civilization, we are providing the Polymathica Fellowship. If you are ready to consider developing an entrepreneurial and polymathic knowledge career, your first step is to join the facebook group, Polymathica Entrepreneurs.
