The Practical Implications of the Transformation

The World is about to fundamentally, radically and rapidly change. We call it The Transformation. It actually began around 1980, however, it will reach its peak rate of change between 2010 and 2030. Here, we will primarily discuss the impending Income Explosion. Between 1875 and 2010, what we refer to as the High Industrial Age, GDP per capita in constant dollars increased between twelve and fifteen times throughout most of the developed world. Over the next few decades, through the implementation of robotics and artificial intelligence, the same will take place during the early Information Age. Because of accelerating change, it will require thirty to forty years, instead of 135 years. Because of globalization, the income explosion will encompass the whole world, not just a portion of it. Consequently, Gross World Product will likely increase thirty to forty fold, from $70 trillion to between $2,100 and $2,800 trillion.

One measure used to gauge the degree of automation is Robot Density or the number of installed robots per 10,000 workers. This measure is currently between 150 and 300 throughout most of the developed world. It has not been growing quickly, but rather at a very lackadaisical rate of 5%-10% per year. This has more to do with cultural inertia and restricted R&D funding than any underlying technological or economic limitations. As the cost of computing power has been halving every three years or so, the gap between automation and AI capability and implementation has been growing. Soon, we will reach a critical differential and a kind of ‘Moore’s Law of Robotics’ will take hold. If we experience a doubling every two years in Robot Density, within twelve years, there will be more robots in the workplace than people. Within twenty years, there will be twenty robots for every human worker.

Actually, by that time, the concept of Human Productive Equivalent (HPE) will probably replace Robot Density. The reason is that not all robots are equal and the disparity between a simple housecleaning robot and a complex surgical robot or bespoke auto making robot will be immense. We would interpret HPE to be a rather hypothetical quantity of ‘value added’ based upon late high Industrial Age machine multipliers. We would expect it to be approximately equal to current Robot Density measures, but substantially more accurate. As such, by 2030 or 2035 the world economy could have 20 HPE’s for every person on the planet.

This is all very fascinating, as are many of the other ideas put forth in the The Future 101 and on the Institute site. However, it really seems that it should be more much than just a provocative idea. Clearly, two quadrillion dollars is a lot of Gross World Product to be created and it sure would be nice to get a piece of it. It would be particularly nice if we did so doing something worthwhile. While hardly the only function of The Polymathic Institute, one of our objectives is to bring together extraordinary polymathic intellectuals, visionary entrepreneurs and aggressive, risk tolerant investors to do just that. You are cordially invited to consider such an involvement to your personal benefit.

Membership is similar to 'talk and blog' sites at $54.95 per year or $6.95 per month. Membership is a true bargain. It is a meaningful opportunity for early entrance into what we refer to as the ‘Knowledge Class’ and the characteristic Information Age lifestyles and incomes. What does that mean? A $50K per year Industrial Age professional will earn between $600K and $750K in the Information Age. They will be engaged primarily in gathering information, processing into knowledge and/or disseminating the result.

However, this transformation to Information Age income levels will not happen by all of us, lockstep, getting raises of 10% per year plus inflation. Rather some people will move to highly compensated Knowledge Professions quickly. We recently learned that when NPR analyst, Juan Williams was fired, he signed on to Fox News for around $650K per year. He is a typical Knowledge Professional. Not someday, but now. The number of people so engaged has been increasing rapidly and will continue to do so.

Most people, however, will follow a less positive path. They will be victims of technological unemployment, move to another Industrial Age profession. Find that, again, their job disappears as well. Eventually, they will understand that they need to become a Knowledge Professional. By becoming a Member of The Polymathic Institute, you are choosing to be in the first group, not the latter.

Your Membership will also provide you with access to a growing global community of extraordinary people. Our goal is to have 25,000 Members and Fellows within two or three years. In addition to benefiting you professionally, it will also benefit you intellectually and socially.

Please visit the Institute site or The Future 101. If, upon reflection, you think you may be interested in becoming a Member, simply press the 'Subscribe' button. If you are interested in exploring Institute Fellowship or certification as a Polymath, contact your sponsor or e-mail Fellows@polymathica.com.

Energy Futures: The CTL/EOR Couplet

There has been much commentary on peak oil and rising crude oil costs in the near future. In fact, there seems to be a general anxieity about the future supply of energy. For the Polymath, the consideration of Energy Futures will at a minimum, involve demographics, Economics, technology and energy resources. Peak oil alarmists, such as Matt Simmons, are not wrong in their analytical techniques. They are wrong in their scope of considerations. Matt Simmons draws the very correct conclusion that if oil consumption patterns continue and no ‘unconventional’ oil or fuel switching opportunities present themselves, we are headed toward a persistent and economically devastating oil crisis.

However, a Polymath, asking the general question, ‘What will energy supply and demand look like in the future’ ignores subject and industriy boundaries to pursue a comprehensive answer. Because of this, when Matt Simmons was predicting $500 oil, we were predicting $85 oil. As oil prices ran up to nearly $150 per barrel subsequent to the predictions of Simmons, et al, we stuck to our guns and continued to state without equivocation that oil would oscillate around an $80 to $85 per barrel price. The more polymathic approach proved to be correct. It generally will.

A full consideration of Energy Futures is well beyond the scope of this article. However, because of its pervasive effects on the shape of future world economies, it is considered by the Polymathica Academy within the course work of The Future 101. Put simply, a superior knowledge of futurity is one of the benefits of Polymathica Institute Fellowship. Here we will consider the twin opportunities of Coal to Liquid (CTL) and Enhanced (tertiary) Oil Recovery (EOR) Technologies. We will do so, because its impact is imminent and the technologies are fairly well developed. It shapes the near future in several ways and is not particularly susceptible to claims of unwarranted and overly optimistic speculation.

Coal Liquefaction has an estmated cost between $30 and $45 per barrel. Its first use was by Nazi Germany when the Allied Forces interfered with their access to petroleum. It is currently implemented in commercial scale operations in South Africa. Because China has large coal reserves and very little oil, it is under active development there. The potential supplies of CTL oil equivalents are huge. U.S. Coal reserves are equivalent to approximately 4,116 billion barrels of oil. This compares to world oil reserves of approximately 1,365 billion barrels. Consequently, the U.S. alone has more than three times the oil reserves of the world with this technology.

The criticism of CLT has been that it produces approximately twice the CO2 as conventional oil production. Environmental interests are insisting that if this technology is deployed, it must be done with CO2 sequestering. The sequestering process adds to the cost and reduces industry and investment interest in the technologies. There is, however, a much better and undoubtedly feasible solution.

This brings us to CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), a method by which up to an additional 50% of the oil recovered through primary and secondary oil recovery methods can be recovered. A DOE review of just six regions concluded that they contained 43.3 billion barrels of additional reserves utilizing this method. From this, it is estimated that the onshore reserves of the U.S. are 89 billion barrels. The upside estimates are as high as 240 billion barrels of stranded oil that can be recovered in the U.S. alone by this method. Costs vary, however, the DOE funded study, dated February 7, 2008, estimated typical costs in the $45 - $55 per barrel range. Again, we emphasize that this is not speculative technology. It has been used on a limited basis since the 1960’s.

There are a couple of important considerations in determining the practical impact of the CTL/EOR couplet. One is the issue of how many barrels of oil can be gotten in EOR from a barrel of CTL. The answer limits the total production by this method that does not require CO2 sequestering of CTL production. Estimates vary between two and three barrels of EOR that can be produced from the CO2 created by liquifying coal to produce one barrel of oil. What this means is that, by the upside estimate, we have 80 to 120 billion barrels of CTL and that this will recover 240 billion barrels of EOR. The additional 320 to 360 billion barrels of U.S. oil is more than the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and would make the U.S. the number one oil producer in the world. Even by the estimate of 89 billion barrels, based upon no technological advancements in the processes, the CTL/EOR couplet increases U.S. oil reserves from 21 billion barrels to 140 to 155 billion barrels. This would place it behind only Saudi Arabia and Canada in oil reserves.

While the U.S. has, by far, the greatest potential for increased reserves through CTL/EOR, other regions, most notably Russia and Venezuela also have significant exploitable reserves. Consequently, rather than a impending oil crisis and price run-up, in reality, the world oil market has a massive supply overhang below $100 per barrel, and probably below $80 per barrel. In other words, if the price of oil remains above $80 per barrel for a sustained period of time, the CTL/EOR Couplet will become progressively more commercialized, placing downward pressure on oil prices. In this way, the conventional oil supply and the CTL/EOR oil supply will find a dynamic equilibrium between $75 to $85 per barrel. We emphasize that there will be price shocks both above and below this price range as markets speculate in advance of short term supply/demand disequalibria. From there, the price will fall to around $55 to $65 per barrel over the next twenty years as consumption per GDP dollar decreases, demographic shifts impact consumption and other oil supply and fuel switching opportunities become economically and technologically feasible.

This is just one small example of how practiced Polymathy leads one, over time, to a different and more informed world view. None of the preceding is unavailable to the mainstream media. Its significance, however, is not properly appreciated and communicated because it runs counter to a world view fabricated from compartmentalized pieces of information. This is a temporary situation and recent publications, such as the 2008 DOE piece will allow the opportunity to slowly diffuse into the public awareness. We strongly encourage the serious Polymath to follow the links in this article, especially the 2008 DOE study, to gain a more complete understanding of this issue.

A Finely Crafted Life

In our previous post we spoke about the Information Age Income Explosion that is being instigated by the implementation of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence technologies. Not only will this cause incomes to, at least, quadruple over the next twenty years, it also will take much of the drudgery out of the work experience. We expect that the typical work week for the knowledge class may fall to between 25 to 30 hours. The combination of affluence and leisure will cause members of the knowledge class to progress through Maslow’s hierarchy and, over time, develop a culture of self-actualization. From this, we introduce the idea of ‘A Finely Crafted Life’.

The analysis and pursuit of a finely crafted life is a distinctly Information Age way of thinking and, as such, is far from fully developed or even well explored. We begin with the concept that life is experienced through various modalities. Each person, based upon their unique character, has a specific preference as to the degree to which they want to experience life through each modality. When a modality is under-experienced a person feels unfulfilled. When a modality is over-experienced a person feels harried. A balance between actual and preferred modalities creates a sense of self-actualization.

We propose a preliminary list of life experience modalities, in alphabetical order, as follows: Aesthetic, Creative, Intellectual, Kinesthetic, Procreative, Productive, Sensual, Social, Spiritual and Status. A Finely Crafted Life is a highly personalized thing. One person may need a very high expression of the Aesthetic in order to be fulfilled, while a different person may need little there but will need a significant expression of the Intellectual. Therefore, A Finely Crafted Life begins with self knowledge. Which modalities are personally the most important and which need only be experienced to a minor degree? From this self knowledge, one can consider how appropriately each is currently being expressed and what strategies may facilitate a more accurate expression.

You will note that we do not refer to balancing work and personal life. These are activities that, to varying degrees, provide opportunities to experience one or more modality. In other words, a well selected job can fulfill Intellectual, Productive, Social, Status and Creative modality needs. We readily admit that, in the Industrial Age, work was an especially important activity, since it enabled or limited one’s ability to engage in other activities that satisfied various modalities. However, if a job is highly enabling (pays well) one can come to ‘need’ their job. However, if one like’s one’s job, it is because it satisfies the modalities that are important to the individual. While work will be essential to membership in the knowledge classes, its emphasis will decrease for most people.

As the profoundly affluent knowledge class emerges, their members will begin to focus more directly upon how to craft a life that provides them with their unique distribution of modality desires. Those with a strong productive need will find productive activities. Those with a strong intellectual need will spend time learning. Because Polymathica is defined as a global community of refinement and erudition, there will be a distinctive slant to what most of its Members consider to be a finely crafted life. Certainly we would expect a greater emphasis on the modalities of Intellectual, Creative, Aesthetic, Spiritual and Status than the general population. In one interpretation, we would expect to be able to define the culture of Polymathica, using the cultural calculus, as a generalized factor within the definition of a finely crafted life.

Because we all will live the rest of our lives in the future and Members of Polymathica will be among the first to enter the knowledge class, younger Members should fully consider how they will want to prosecute their life and what, to them, is meant by a finely crafted life. As more seasoned Members consider how they wish to transform their lives through Membership, they should be fully cognizant of the principles of a finely crafted life. Because the Industrial Age was not particularly friendly to people of refinement and erudition, there will probably be significant opportunity for improvement.

The concept of a Finely Crafted Life will be one of several persistent threads that will define Polymathica and permeate our discussions of it. We suggest the following exercise. Using a spreadsheet, list each of the ten modalities across the top and assign to each a value between 1 and 10 describing how important it is to you. Now list each activity that you engage in that contributes to your experience to each modality. Rate it on how much it contributes to each modality. This worksheet will provide a structure with which you can consider strategies for transforming your life.

The Cultural Calculus: An Example of Polymathic Methodological Transfer

Psychologist Charles Spearman hypothesized that for every intellectual task the performance of an individual is determined by traits specific to the task (s) and traits general to all or most intellectual tasks (g). Suppose we chose 100 people at random and gave them a test on number progressions. A performance rank order would result. Now suppose we gave the same 100 people an analogy test. There are three distinct relationships the two results could have to one another.

The first is that they are inversely correlated. In other words, a person who scored in the top 50 on one test would have a greater than random chance of scoring in the lower 50 on the second test. This is the constant intelligence theory that says that everyone has about the same amount of intelligence and if a person is better than average in one task it is because they are applying more of their intelligence to it. Consequently, they have less to apply to other tasks and they can be expected to score below average on those tests.

The next theory is the random theory. In other words, g=0 and all the proficiency a person has in a specific intellectual task is related to traits that only affect that intellectual task. If Spearman is correct, the rank order of a person on one test will have predictive value on the other test. The greater the predictive value the more g dominates the explanation of intellectual performance.

The problem of determining the predictive value between many tests was a difficult one and Spearman developed Factor Analysis to deal with it. It turned out that Spearman was correct. In fact, it turned out that g explained most of the difference in intellectual performance between people. Thus, a new and more rigorous definition of IQ was born. IQ is a measure of g, which is extracted from the results of questions diagnostic of many types of intellectual tasks.

Factor Analysis has been utilized polymathically in geochemistry, ecology, hydrochemistry and economics. Marketing analysis has used a simpler form by creating correlation matrices. Here we are going to give an example of an intentional rather than accidental use of polymathy to develop a Cultural Calculus. In doing so, we will provide a theoretical basis for a new way to evaluate history, understand the present and contemplate the future.

Suppose we gave a number of people a questionnaire that explored their attitude toward abortion. We could then assign values to each person with 1 representing someone who believes that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances and that anyone involved in an abortion should be considered to have committed or been accessory to murder and 100 representing someone who believes that abortion should be legal at all points in a pregnancy and, nobody, including the father or the courts, my abridge that right. We would expect that this questionnaire would result in a bimodal population if plotted on a graph where the x axis is the value between 1 and 100 and the y axis is the number of people with the specific rating. We would expect the left mode to be represented by people who believe that abortion should be illegal except in the cases of incest or rape or to save the life of the mother. The right mode, we expect would be centered on people who believe that abortion should be legal in the first trimester of a pregnancy.

Now suppose we gave the same people a questionnaire that explored their attitude about welfare. We, again, would expect a bimodal population with one group centering around a view that welfare should be limited, locally administered and with significant assistance from the philanthropic and religious communities and the other group centering around a federally mandated suite of government entitlement programs.

Let us expand our graph to three axes, with x being the rating on the abortion scale, y being the rating on the welfare scale and z being the number of people at each particular (x,y). We believe that now we will find a conical mound centering around those who take a low numbered position with regard to both abortion and welfare and another centering around those who take a high numbered position to both. We are not sure whether those not among the two major nodes will be evenly distributed or if there would be one or more smaller nodes. Some people might argue that the graph would have more than two modes. Others may argue that concentrations would be small and the majority of people would reside on a 100 X 100 plane of relatively little topography. We are unaware of any studies of this nature and, consequently, the disagreement cannot be definitively resolved.

Since very few people can visualize hyperdimensional objects, we are going to add one more questionnaire and then stop. Now we will include a questionnaire on the degree to which government should abridge the freedom of action of citizens and enterprises for the sake of preserving the ecological status quo. At the low end will be people who believe that the government has no right to abridge such actions at all and on the other extreme are people who believe that the government has an absolute obligation to proscribe and assess fines for any act that may disturb the current environmental conditions. Now, since we need the z axis for our third questionnaire, we will need to do this a little differently. We will make a volume comprised of 100 X 100 X 100 = 1,000,000 cubes each of which represents one unique (x,y,z) and capable of holding many dots. We believe that this exercise would render two very dense centers surrounded by a halo of loci of decreasing density as the radius from the center increases. For those familiar with astronomy, it would look like two globular clusters, one centered around moderate positions in favor of abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions and one that centered around moderate positions against abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions. Again, we are unsure whether there would be smaller clusters at different locations.

We can imagine that the same questionnaires are given to a statistically valid and consistent group of people over time. We now can see our concept space evolving. Perhaps clusters will become more dense or less dense. Perhaps a piece of a cluster will break off and travel to a different locus, picking up members as it goes. Perhaps portions of our concept space will develop a new attractor and start growing and increasing in density spontaneously. Perhaps we can see the distance between the two major clusters become closer or farther apart. In other words, we will be watching a movie of cultural fragmentation, coalescence and evolution.

Of course, Cultural Analysts, well versed in the more complex mathematical methods required to extract meaning from a larger number questionnaires will take this several steps further than we will here. They will create hyperdimensional models that will move, transform and evolve in ways that can only be approximately represented in three dimensional models. Using factor analysis, they can create a kind of central definition of culture, perhaps extracting central or core factors that define each culture. Even though not easily visualized, characteristic statements, then, can be made about the conformation of the concept space and how it has changed over time.

Not only is this an example of methodology transfer being utilized in the Polymathic Method, it also allows us to provide a more complete explanation of the meaning of Polymathica. If questionnaires were given to people to assess their sense of refinement and erudition, we consider it obvious that few people would find themselves in the 90’s on a scale of 1 to 100. Most of civilization has become rather crass, crude, hedonistic, vulgar and anti-intellectual. Consequently, Polymathica is creating an attractor at one end of the refinement and erudition dimensions of concept space that, we hope will begin to grow through accretion and become more defined through shared cultural literacy.

This post also gives us a common pattern language with which to discuss issues of culture.

Educating the Polymath

At first blush, the concept of educating a Polymath may seem oxymoronic. After all, Polymaths must first and foremost be autodidacts. While they may engage in directed learning for specific skill acquisition the choice is inherently subject specific rather than polymathic. In other words, there really isn’t any significant difference between “Web Page Design for Polymaths” and “Web Page Design for Everyone Else.”

For the most part, polymathy is resident in the synthesis, not in the individual courses of study. Consequently, everything we know about higher education is, at best, tangentially applicable to our needs. In our post, The Research Polymath, we stated that Research Polymathy should take place outside of traditional Academia due to the hostility that the various institutions have toward the practice of Polymathy. Additionally, because we are going to need to start from scratch with a pedagogical design, the actual structure of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will undoubtedly be incompatible in its structure with the traditional colleges and universities.

Because the Polymathic Method is inherently autodidactic, one of the cornerstones of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will be the certification of autonomously learned material. It will often be the case that those who interact with a Polymath will want an outside assessment of their knowledge and skills. These may include prospective investors, research funding agencies and individuals or potential collaborators. The certification of specific knowledge and skill sets by Polymathic Institute Senior Members will amplify the opportunities to utilize credit received in a traditional university environment and proficiency testing services, such as CLEP to meet the knowledge and skill acquisition requirements of the chosen degree program.

In addition to assisting in assessing course equivalent proficiencies, a Polymathic Institute should certify at the degree level, as well. Specific certifications may include various Masters and Doctoral level categories. We imagine the most widely acquired would be a Masters of Enterprise Polymathy. For many pundits, talkers, bloggers and community designers, a Masters of Social Polymathy may be useful. For Research Polymaths, a PhD of Polymathy may demonstrate to potential constituencies and markets that an advanced level of proficiency in the Polymathic Method has been attained.

The certification process we imagine would involve two or three steps. The first step would be to interact with a certification design consultant who will assist the student in defining the degree certification to be acquired. In many cases, this step can be abbreviated or even completely eliminated by accepting a previously designed certification, such as a Masters in Enterprise Polymathy. However, it would also allow for a ‘design your own degree’ option.

The second step is to obtain evidence of acquisition of a basic knowledge and skill set characteristic of the certification being acquired. This will involve accumulating transcripts from traditional universities already attended, taking CLEP assessments and demonstration of proficiency made directly to the Polymathic Institute or other non-traditional institutions, such as Project Polymath courses.

Third, because a Polymathic Institute will be conferring graduate, rather than baccalaureate, level certification, a thesis will be produced and defended.

An important benefit of attending a first tier University is the network of contacts that are made. While the benefit is informal at a traditional institution of higher education, it will be something more properly formalized at a Polymathic Institute. In other words, the primary value of matriculating at a Polymathic Institute may, in the end, be vested in the alumni association. We have seen in several of our posts that the adage, ‘United we stand, divided we fall’ is central to the ultimate success of Polymathy as a set of viable career options.

Lastly, we assume, especially for the Doctoral level candidates, that a thesis advisor/mentor will be acquired through the Institute. The advisor, as in traditional educational institutions, will suggest approaches, knowledge and skill acquisition requirements and strategies and provide critiques intended to lead to an eventual successful thesis defense.

As we have stated in the past, we are firmly supportive of Project Polymath and their efforts to create a Polymathic University. It appears from their current direction that they can, in the very near future, provide an additional source of training and proficiency assessment for the Polymathic Institute certification candidate. We sincerely hope that the participants in a Polymathic Institute can bring value to Project Polymath, as well.

We will not make a distinction between our Founders’ Circle, the Academy and Alumni association, and execute them all under the general rubric of Polymathica Institute. We do so because the term 'institute' may refer to an institution of learning and research or an institution promoting a cause. In addition to providing content, networks, products and services to a community of refinement and erudition, Polymathica Institute will do both of these.

The structure of the Academy is totally new, or, one may argue, as ancient as the Academy of Plato. As we have stated earlier, there will be a nominal general access charge to enter the Institute and, then, each individual educational process will be negotiated between a student Member and a Senior Member qualified to provide the service. The only direct involvement of the Polymathica Institute in the Academy will be the general oversight of organizational development and the credentialing process to assure that the various credentials conferred maintain the highest level quality and, thereby, reputation.

We expect that the earliest students to matriculate in the Polymathica Academy will be from one of three categories. First will be individuals of means who want to be able to say, “I am a Polymath and I have a piece of paper to prove it.” They should also enjoy the challenge of meeting the requirements of receiving the certification. Second will be young people who, because of their brilliance, have not thrived in traditional educational institutions and wish to pursue a non-traditional polymathic career path more suitable to their intellectual abilities. Third are career changers who realize that they, because of their intellectual abilities, interests and polymathism, are not likely to progress much past lower, technical management levels in traditional, Industrial Age enterprises.

There is, of course, the matter of the cost of the credentialing. This is difficult to determine with precision, because each phase of the process will be individually negotiated and the amount of outside help each student will require will be different. The cost of access to the Polymathica Institute over a two year certification program will be about $1,500. A reasonable cost of proficiency assessment may be another $1,500 - $2,500. CLEP assessments cost $72 ($77 after July 2010) each. Various universities offer college level credit via assessment of 'life experience.' Additionally, we anticipate that some Polymathica Institute Members may be qualified to write and administer a private knowledge acquisition assessment. Custom made tests are likely to be expensive. However, ones that are commonly needed, such as various areas of Statistics, may be relatively inexpensive. We would expect a thesis defense to cost between $1,500 and $5,000 depending upon its complexity. The cost of a mentor/advisor may be another $3,000-$5,000. PhD level thesis defense and mentor/advisor arrangements could be expected to be in the high end of the range with Masters of Enterprise Polymathy could be expected to be in the lower end of the range.

This suggests that a graduate level certification in Polymathy may cost between $5,000 and $15,000. This compares with the average cost of an MBA of $40,000. As to unaccredited educational services, The Singularity University offers a 9-day executive program for $15,000 and a 10 week summer Graduate Studies Program for $25,000. So, we see that the Academy, by its organizational structure, will be able to provide student Members with cost effective educational credentials and Senior Members with a good professional income.

As we have mentioned in a prior post, we strongly encourage individuals of means to join the Polymathica Institute and fund scholarship and polymathic research. While Polymathica is not properly organized to create and administer such programs, its Members can and should create them.

Because every credential is, in a fashion, custom made and, in our opinion, any attempts at obtaining accreditation from a traditional agency would be futile, we can begin the Academy as soon as we have willing students and mentors within the Institute. If you are interested in gaining Polymath certification or providing graduate level proficiency or academic services, contact Fellows@polymathica.com. As soon as there is sufficient interest, we will create a task force to implement the Academy.

The Polymathica Vision

Polymathica is a global community of refinement and erudition. It is small now, but it is growing. The core of our growth strategy is the principle that people attract appropriate content and content attracts appropriate people. It is our belief that the end result, in about two years, will be a website, in many ways similar to Yahoo!, MSN.com, AOL.com, iGoogle, or Go.com, that will provide its approximately 2.5 million subscribers with print, audio and video content, social and professional networks, educational and career opportunities, products and services. This content will be notable in its refinement and erudition and should attract refined, erudite subscribers.

We believe that Polymathica is part of a trend away from ‘one site fits all’ homepages. As Internet delivered audio and video content emerges, about 10% of the Internet population will diverge into values based communities such as the 300,791 subscribers of Gaia.com. About 5% will diverge into intellectually sophisticated communities. These communities will be fuzzy sets. In other words, some subscribers will be completely immersed in the community while other subscribers may only connect with one function. Content, networks, products and services that were created primarily to serve the Polymathica community may find customers elsewhere as well.

We are at the very beginning of the community building process. We are currently growing primarily through member referrals. People may become a ‘Polymathican’ by joining our facebook group, going to Polymathica.com and subscribing to our mailing list, or by following us on this blog. Community growth is greatly assisted by inviting friends or acquaintances who are, in your assessment, inclined toward refinement and erudition. Consistent with the theory that content attracts people and people attract content, when you invite someone to Polymathica, you are assisting in the process of attracting the kind of content, networks, products and services you desire.

We have created, for those who want to provide content, networks, products and services to a refined, erudite community a Polymathica Founders’ Group. If this interests you, simply click on the Founders Group link.

Polymathica Bloggers and Talkers

Based upon research by Hollingworth, Simonton, Dennissen, et al, we conclude that the upper five percent of the population in intellectual and cultural sophistication does not have sufficient access to appropriate news, analysis and commentary. This is a market of approximately 35 million English speakers that, in the Industrial Age, was left substantially underserved. Of these, at least 2.5 million will self-identify as holding the values of refinement and erudition. One of the primary purposes of Polymathica is to create a place similar to The Huffington Post or Townhall.com. However, in our case, rather than being for liberal or conservative news, analysis and commentary, it will provide a broad spectrum of topics presented with refinment and erudition.

Because Polymathica subscribers are erudite, they are also prodigious consumers of information compared to the general population. Consequently, Polymathica, once constructed, can support a broad spectrum of content. By way of example, 2.5 million people creating three page views per day at $.01 per page view will create a little over $27 million of ad revenue per year, which, at Technorati’s estimate of top blogger income of $200,000 per year will support 136 top bloggers. This is sufficient to satisfy the expectations of even the most engaged Polymathica subscriber. However, we believe that Polymathica will be able to support an even larger population of top bloggers.

Bloggers are currently morphing into media personalities and media personalities into bloggers. In the near future, instigated by the emergence of Internet delivery of audio and video content, people who currently are bloggers, columnists, radio talk show hosts, television news personalities, etc. will begin to consider themselves as multimedia personalities. Some will write books. Some will tweet. Some will produce an audio news magazine. Others will produce a video round table discussion. Each will consider the vast and ever expanding array of technologies for delivering their thoughts to the market and choose the ones that work best for them. Rush Limbaugh attempted television and failed. Bill O’Rielly tried radio and failed.

This means, that, because their income is coming from several sources, the number of top bloggers that Polymathica will eventually be able to support is greater than 136. Also, many bloggers who cater to the upper 5% of the population in intellectual and cultural sophistication will find readership in the 90% - 95% of this population that is not a Polymathcia subscriber. We also emphasize, as is the case with the Huffington Post and Townhall.com, that there will be a place for what Technorati refers to as the ‘Citizen Blogger.’ In other words, in the Information Age, people will interact with their community in many ways, one of which will be a blog. It is not done primarily for profit, but rather serves as a super-elaborated personal profile page. Because non-professional bloggers are perfectly capable of making cogent observations, the line between citizen blogger and professional blogger is vague.

The Internet tradition today is that blogs are ad supported and audio commentary is a premium membership feature. The typical 24/7 membership fee is between $30 and $55 per year. As Internet radio becomes the norm, we expect the cost of these premium memberships to go down, probably to about $10 to $15 per year. In this way, people will custom design their news, analysis and commentary access. It may include a video hard news feed, an audio hard news feed, a half dozen audio and video analysis and commentary products, another ten or twelve subscriptions in the Humanities, Science and Technology, Business, Sports, Fashion, Lifestyles, and Spirituality, along with free ad supported print content.

In conclusion, we believe that Polymathica will be of sufficient size to provide its subscribers with a broad spectrum of blogs, audiocasts, videocasts, produced video content, etc. as well as a social architecture that will allow them to share and discuss what they have read, heard, viewed or thought. It won't be easy, but it will be worthwhile for those of us who have found current options sophomoric and superficial. We heartily encourage you to join our facebook page or follow us here.