In a prior post we touched upon our skepticism with regard to ‘The Singularity.’ Since the purpose of the post was to introduce the idea of the Information Age Income Explosion, we did not deal comprehensively with the problems inherent in Singularitarianism. We will discuss The Singularity in more detail in future posts. Again, it is only tangentially related to this post. Presently, we will discuss Information Age Transformationalism. In other words, because we believe that the near future will be characterized by a cascade of endogenously related S-Curves, we incorporate into our vision of Polymathica the notion that a transformational global Information Age civilization is emerging.
Polymathica is about creating a global community of refinement and erudition. Our analysis suggests that a universal awareness of Polymathica and a robust selection of refined and/or erudite content, networks, products and services, will result in between 2.0 and 3.0 million Polymathicans. So, while a small percentage of the population from which it is drawn, Polymathica is potentially significant in absolute terms. However, its growth and development needs to be considered within the context of the profound global transformation that will reach its greatest rate of change between today and 2030. In this article we will summarize the major points of that transformation and its significance to Polymathicans.
As we discussed in our prior post, implementation of state of the art robotics and business related AI software will lead, over the next twenty years, to an explosion in incomes. At a minimum the GDP per capita in the developed world will double by 2020 and quadruple by 2030. At the same time, the majority of current job descriptions will disappear. We will likely find ourselves in the peculiar situation where income will be increasing at an unprecedented rate while, simultaneously, unemployment will be skyrocketing. We cannot overemphasize the importance of our constituency staying ahead of this curve by entering an Information Age knowledge profession as soon as possible.
As incomes explode, work weeks will shorten. This will happen because nearly all jobs will become robotically or AI assisted. At the same time domestic chores will become robotically or AI assisted as well. Robots will clean our house, wash our clothes, tend our yards and cook our meals. This dramatic increase in leisure time will precipitate an existential crisis for many people. However, for Polymathicans, it will enable their pursuit of refinement and erudition – what we refer to as A Finely Crafted Life. We have likened the sociology of the coming age of automation to the Antebellum South of the U.S. What we mean by this is that the cultural emphasis will move away from productivity and toward self-actualization. We understand that many will consider the Antebellum culture to have been effete and we don't disagree that it was immediately prior to the Civil War. However, it also spawned Thomas Jefferson and James Madison.
Aubrey de Grey has been soundly, and unfairly, criticized for his SENS.org. While detractors are correct that he is not engaging in science, they are incorrect in using the pejorative, pseudoscience. He is engaging in a systematic metascientific inquiry into the essential nature of the problem of aging and death. He is rejecting the fantastical claims of simple solutions in favor of the more realistic expectations of incremental improvements in life expectancy. Over the next twenty years society will be fundamentally transformed by the growing expectations that life spans will routinely exceed one hundred years. We can expect that people will more readily accept the notion of evolving careers. The portion of life dedicated to rearing children will dramatically decrease. Preparation for retirement will be de-emphasized. Continuing adult education will become normative and, parenthetically, one of the lifestyle changes enabled by the increase in leisure time inherent in The Transformation.
The transformation of the Internet into a multi-media, global communication system that will support the market demands of smaller, more diffuse communities will also transform civilization. From a theoretical viewpoint, memic propagators are decoupling from geographically defined communities and thereby decoupling culture from geography in general. In other words, in the past people absorbed their culture from local sources such as schools, churches, parents, neighbors, etc. Now, culture is being absorbed from remote, often globally distributed sources. We discussed a theoretical structure of analysis in our article, ‘The Cultural Calculus.’ Because culture informs one as to morality and morality informs one as to the justness of laws, we are entering a period when geographically defined institutions of governance will become progressively less effective. A full exploration of what will replace them is beyond the scope of this article and will be addressed in future articles. However, generally, governance will be bicameral, with one legislative institution granted geographic sovereignty and the other cultural sovereignty.
Each year, approximately ½ of 1% of the population finds that they can live anywhere. In tandem with the decoupling of culture from geography, this will dramatically transform the demographics of civilization. New, culturally defined, communities will form in locales chosen for purely environmental and lifestyle reasons. Each ‘live anywhere’ person who chooses to move to such a community will create five or six other residents, primarily by creating demand in the service sector. It appears that this process will take place over about one generation and follow an S-Curve development. Over the next 30 years, we expect that Industrial Age cities will lose approximately 30% of their population to new communities comprehensively designed to facilitate the lifestyles idiosyncratic to specific values and cultures. EcoVillages and CoHousing are the beginning, not the culmination, of this process.
This blog is currently being read by people in over 40 countries. When we described Polymathica as a global community, we chose the words carefully. Polymathica is part of an overall trend toward a growing transnational intellectual elite. We are seeing in Polymathican profiles many people who are currently living far from where they were born and raised. Polymathicans are not only polymathic, they are, of necessity, polyglots. Assuming that future communities facilitative of polymathic values and lifestyles mirror the Membership in Polymathica, we can expect that these communities will have a distinctly international flavor. This is part of an overall process by which cultural and community identification slowly supplants national identity.
The next twenty years are best considered using the analogical model of a system of endogenously related time series equations where the individual equations without the effects of other equations would describe S-Curves. Each of the transformations described here would be one of those equations. However, because they are endogenously related, the system, as a whole, can experience periods of profound discontinuity. For those readers who prefer non-mathematical analogies, we would simply state that these imminent transformations will result in what historians will consider to be the core of the Information Revolution. While we believe that The Singularity is a flawed prediction, we do believe in The Transformation.
The observation made on the pages of Project Polymath that we may be entering a second Renaissance is not without validity. However, it is not a renaissance; it is a nascence. The emergence of an international community of polymaths, will be similar to the Renaissance in its intellectual energy. However, it will be unlike anything that preceded it in fundamental ways. In the Industrial Age, the civilization did not well utilize its most exceptional members. This was partially due to the social dynamics of organizational structures and partially due to the rejection of the Polymath model that we discuss in our articles, ‘The Polymathic Method and the Research Polymath’ and ‘The Enterprise Polymath.’ One of the characteristics of the Transformation will be the emergence of polymathic knowledge professions. While a footnote for future historians, this eventuality portends profound intellectual, social and lifestyle transformations for Polymathicans.
Consequently, the concept of Polymathica as a global community, is inextricably entwined with the considerations of the emergent knowledge professions, a rigorous development of a superior understanding of futurity and the Transformation that we believe is far more likely than the Singularity. We understand that for most Polymathicans, the fraternal associations and the intellectual stimulation derived through Member interaction is a sufficient level of involvement for them at this time. However, for some, the pursuit of polymathic research, education, enterprise and/or lifestyles are matters of significant, if not primary, lifestyle concern. Consequently, we have, on several occasions attempted to bifurcate the organization into two levels of interest. To this end, we will be establishing a Polymathica Institute that will have among its parts, an Academy, a professional network similar to LinkedIn.com and an enterprise development and financing organization. At its core, its purpose is to participate, on behalf of Polymaths, in the imminent Transformation.
Showing posts with label refined. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refined. Show all posts
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
A Finely Crafted Life
In our previous post we spoke about the Information Age Income Explosion that is being instigated by the implementation of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence technologies. Not only will this cause incomes to, at least, quadruple over the next twenty years, it also will take much of the drudgery out of the work experience. We expect that the typical work week for the knowledge class may fall to between 25 to 30 hours. The combination of affluence and leisure will cause members of the knowledge class to progress through Maslow’s hierarchy and, over time, develop a culture of self-actualization. From this, we introduce the idea of ‘A Finely Crafted Life’.
The analysis and pursuit of a finely crafted life is a distinctly Information Age way of thinking and, as such, is far from fully developed or even well explored. We begin with the concept that life is experienced through various modalities. Each person, based upon their unique character, has a specific preference as to the degree to which they want to experience life through each modality. When a modality is under-experienced a person feels unfulfilled. When a modality is over-experienced a person feels harried. A balance between actual and preferred modalities creates a sense of self-actualization.
We propose a preliminary list of life experience modalities, in alphabetical order, as follows: Aesthetic, Creative, Intellectual, Kinesthetic, Procreative, Productive, Sensual, Social, Spiritual and Status. A Finely Crafted Life is a highly personalized thing. One person may need a very high expression of the Aesthetic in order to be fulfilled, while a different person may need little there but will need a significant expression of the Intellectual. Therefore, A Finely Crafted Life begins with self knowledge. Which modalities are personally the most important and which need only be experienced to a minor degree? From this self knowledge, one can consider how appropriately each is currently being expressed and what strategies may facilitate a more accurate expression.
You will note that we do not refer to balancing work and personal life. These are activities that, to varying degrees, provide opportunities to experience one or more modality. In other words, a well selected job can fulfill Intellectual, Productive, Social, Status and Creative modality needs. We readily admit that, in the Industrial Age, work was an especially important activity, since it enabled or limited one’s ability to engage in other activities that satisfied various modalities. However, if a job is highly enabling (pays well) one can come to ‘need’ their job. However, if one like’s one’s job, it is because it satisfies the modalities that are important to the individual. While work will be essential to membership in the knowledge classes, its emphasis will decrease for most people.
As the profoundly affluent knowledge class emerges, their members will begin to focus more directly upon how to craft a life that provides them with their unique distribution of modality desires. Those with a strong productive need will find productive activities. Those with a strong intellectual need will spend time learning. Because Polymathica is defined as a global community of refinement and erudition, there will be a distinctive slant to what most of its Members consider to be a finely crafted life. Certainly we would expect a greater emphasis on the modalities of Intellectual, Creative, Aesthetic, Spiritual and Status than the general population. In one interpretation, we would expect to be able to define the culture of Polymathica, using the cultural calculus, as a generalized factor within the definition of a finely crafted life.
Because we all will live the rest of our lives in the future and Members of Polymathica will be among the first to enter the knowledge class, younger Members should fully consider how they will want to prosecute their life and what, to them, is meant by a finely crafted life. As more seasoned Members consider how they wish to transform their lives through Membership, they should be fully cognizant of the principles of a finely crafted life. Because the Industrial Age was not particularly friendly to people of refinement and erudition, there will probably be significant opportunity for improvement.
The concept of a Finely Crafted Life will be one of several persistent threads that will define Polymathica and permeate our discussions of it. We suggest the following exercise. Using a spreadsheet, list each of the ten modalities across the top and assign to each a value between 1 and 10 describing how important it is to you. Now list each activity that you engage in that contributes to your experience to each modality. Rate it on how much it contributes to each modality. This worksheet will provide a structure with which you can consider strategies for transforming your life.
The analysis and pursuit of a finely crafted life is a distinctly Information Age way of thinking and, as such, is far from fully developed or even well explored. We begin with the concept that life is experienced through various modalities. Each person, based upon their unique character, has a specific preference as to the degree to which they want to experience life through each modality. When a modality is under-experienced a person feels unfulfilled. When a modality is over-experienced a person feels harried. A balance between actual and preferred modalities creates a sense of self-actualization.
We propose a preliminary list of life experience modalities, in alphabetical order, as follows: Aesthetic, Creative, Intellectual, Kinesthetic, Procreative, Productive, Sensual, Social, Spiritual and Status. A Finely Crafted Life is a highly personalized thing. One person may need a very high expression of the Aesthetic in order to be fulfilled, while a different person may need little there but will need a significant expression of the Intellectual. Therefore, A Finely Crafted Life begins with self knowledge. Which modalities are personally the most important and which need only be experienced to a minor degree? From this self knowledge, one can consider how appropriately each is currently being expressed and what strategies may facilitate a more accurate expression.
You will note that we do not refer to balancing work and personal life. These are activities that, to varying degrees, provide opportunities to experience one or more modality. In other words, a well selected job can fulfill Intellectual, Productive, Social, Status and Creative modality needs. We readily admit that, in the Industrial Age, work was an especially important activity, since it enabled or limited one’s ability to engage in other activities that satisfied various modalities. However, if a job is highly enabling (pays well) one can come to ‘need’ their job. However, if one like’s one’s job, it is because it satisfies the modalities that are important to the individual. While work will be essential to membership in the knowledge classes, its emphasis will decrease for most people.
As the profoundly affluent knowledge class emerges, their members will begin to focus more directly upon how to craft a life that provides them with their unique distribution of modality desires. Those with a strong productive need will find productive activities. Those with a strong intellectual need will spend time learning. Because Polymathica is defined as a global community of refinement and erudition, there will be a distinctive slant to what most of its Members consider to be a finely crafted life. Certainly we would expect a greater emphasis on the modalities of Intellectual, Creative, Aesthetic, Spiritual and Status than the general population. In one interpretation, we would expect to be able to define the culture of Polymathica, using the cultural calculus, as a generalized factor within the definition of a finely crafted life.
Because we all will live the rest of our lives in the future and Members of Polymathica will be among the first to enter the knowledge class, younger Members should fully consider how they will want to prosecute their life and what, to them, is meant by a finely crafted life. As more seasoned Members consider how they wish to transform their lives through Membership, they should be fully cognizant of the principles of a finely crafted life. Because the Industrial Age was not particularly friendly to people of refinement and erudition, there will probably be significant opportunity for improvement.
The concept of a Finely Crafted Life will be one of several persistent threads that will define Polymathica and permeate our discussions of it. We suggest the following exercise. Using a spreadsheet, list each of the ten modalities across the top and assign to each a value between 1 and 10 describing how important it is to you. Now list each activity that you engage in that contributes to your experience to each modality. Rate it on how much it contributes to each modality. This worksheet will provide a structure with which you can consider strategies for transforming your life.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
The Singularity is Not Near. But the future is going to be really cool anyway
If you kick around the intellectual community for any time at all, you will undoubtedly encounter the Transhumanists and Singularitiarians. If you look at our suggested reading list for polymaths, you will see Ray Kurzweil’s book, ‘The Singularity is Near’. That is because the book is influential, not because it is particularly accurate.
Kurzweil accepts that technologies develop and mature along a path known as an S-curve. He then makes the claim that, in cases such as computing capacity, S-curves follow one another sequentially to form a geometric curve. (page 43) In this, he is mistaken. The same forces that cause an individual technology to follow an S-curve applies to the function, such as computing capacity per constant dollar, itself. Consequently, it will follow a super S-Curve.
When electromechanical computation began to reach its maturity, it was relatively easy to find a technology that had more potential. It was the relay. When the relay began to reach its maturity, it was a little more difficult and costly to find a new technology with greater potential. It was the vacuum tube. When the vacuum tube began to reach its maturity it was even more difficult and costly to develop a new technology. It was the transistor.
The current technology, the silicon based integrated circuit, is approaching its limits. The number of components that can be put on a chip will continue to increase at least until 2019. However, the computing power that can be purchased for a constant dollar amount appears to be reaching its limit by 2014. In other words, after 2014, you will be able to get a more powerful CPU, but it is going to cost you more.
There is a replacement technology, carbon nanotubes, that appears capable of exceeding the performance of silicon based chips. However, the most enthusiastic proponents do not claim that the cross-over point will occur before 2020. Additionally, there is currently no strong evidence that their price performance can exceed current technology by then, if ever. It appears that we are reaching the flex point of the Super S-Curve of computation. In other words, human equivalent computing capacity for $1,000 is likely by 2030. However, after that progress is likely to slow down dramatically.
While the future of immortal humans and god-like computers is not likely in the 21st Century, the next twenty years are going to be extraordinarily exciting. Due to a number of economic and technological forces, robotic performance in practice is lagging far behind theory. The computing capacity that can be purchased today for $1,000 would have cost $250,000,000 just twenty years ago. However, in the same period, the cost of a similar robot has only decreased by 75%.
This is about to change. Robotics and artificial intelligence are about to explode. The 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge, for robotics and artificial intelligence, was something like the Apollo Project for space exploration. It was ahead of its time, but it demonstrated just how far behind we were in the implementation of robotics.
By 2030, even households of moderate means will have robots cooking their meals, washing their clothes, cleaning their house and chauffeuring them around. In fact, their home will be primarily robotically built. Manufacturing plants will not only be completely automated, the production of robots will be completely automated as well. In the office, purchasing, inventory control, accounts payable, accounts receivable, cash management and more will be performed by intelligent computer programs with nominal human oversight. Civilization will literally become a slave economy. However, unlike the first round of slavery, robots are completely uninterested in consuming to a level proportional to their production. They are not interested in asserting their will or exercising freedoms. And, if anyone built such robots, people wouldn't buy them.
We are just now entering the bottom of the geometric growth of installed robotics and artificial intelligence. It should be expected that the process will be messy and contentious. However, it will take place. In fact, between 2000 and 2005, Japan’s growth in robot exports was increasing at a rate of 20% to 35% per year. While the global economic slowdown hit robot sales hard, the recovery will begin in 2010 and is expected to be significant.
It is only a matter of time before this level of growth will over-run a GDP per Capita growth rate of under 3%. Conservatively, we would expect household income to double by 2020 and quadruple by 2030. For those who wish to enter the Information Age knowledge professions the increase in standard of living will be even more pronounced and happen even faster. When we state that people who choose to enter a knowledge profession today will be earning 250K within three years and 500K within five years, that is not hyperbole or hype. It is simply what knowledge professions will be earning in the Information Age.
So, while significantly less dramatic that what is predicted by Singularitarians, we still expect a dramatic and positive next twenty years. Singularitarians seem to make the admirable error of assuming that everything that can go right, will go right. It won’t. However, much of it will, though generally later than expected. Even now, we are beginning to see that S-Curves aggregate to make a Super S-Curve, not a geometric curve. However, the generally pessimistic view of the future promulgated by many of the more mainstream media is even more unrealistic. As Polymathica grows and expands the assumption that an Information Age Income Explosion is imminent is critical to proper planning.
In addition to inviting comments on our blog, we will be setting up a topic on the discussion board of our facebook group. Please follow us here and on facebook.
Kurzweil accepts that technologies develop and mature along a path known as an S-curve. He then makes the claim that, in cases such as computing capacity, S-curves follow one another sequentially to form a geometric curve. (page 43) In this, he is mistaken. The same forces that cause an individual technology to follow an S-curve applies to the function, such as computing capacity per constant dollar, itself. Consequently, it will follow a super S-Curve.
When electromechanical computation began to reach its maturity, it was relatively easy to find a technology that had more potential. It was the relay. When the relay began to reach its maturity, it was a little more difficult and costly to find a new technology with greater potential. It was the vacuum tube. When the vacuum tube began to reach its maturity it was even more difficult and costly to develop a new technology. It was the transistor.
The current technology, the silicon based integrated circuit, is approaching its limits. The number of components that can be put on a chip will continue to increase at least until 2019. However, the computing power that can be purchased for a constant dollar amount appears to be reaching its limit by 2014. In other words, after 2014, you will be able to get a more powerful CPU, but it is going to cost you more.
There is a replacement technology, carbon nanotubes, that appears capable of exceeding the performance of silicon based chips. However, the most enthusiastic proponents do not claim that the cross-over point will occur before 2020. Additionally, there is currently no strong evidence that their price performance can exceed current technology by then, if ever. It appears that we are reaching the flex point of the Super S-Curve of computation. In other words, human equivalent computing capacity for $1,000 is likely by 2030. However, after that progress is likely to slow down dramatically.
While the future of immortal humans and god-like computers is not likely in the 21st Century, the next twenty years are going to be extraordinarily exciting. Due to a number of economic and technological forces, robotic performance in practice is lagging far behind theory. The computing capacity that can be purchased today for $1,000 would have cost $250,000,000 just twenty years ago. However, in the same period, the cost of a similar robot has only decreased by 75%.
This is about to change. Robotics and artificial intelligence are about to explode. The 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge, for robotics and artificial intelligence, was something like the Apollo Project for space exploration. It was ahead of its time, but it demonstrated just how far behind we were in the implementation of robotics.
By 2030, even households of moderate means will have robots cooking their meals, washing their clothes, cleaning their house and chauffeuring them around. In fact, their home will be primarily robotically built. Manufacturing plants will not only be completely automated, the production of robots will be completely automated as well. In the office, purchasing, inventory control, accounts payable, accounts receivable, cash management and more will be performed by intelligent computer programs with nominal human oversight. Civilization will literally become a slave economy. However, unlike the first round of slavery, robots are completely uninterested in consuming to a level proportional to their production. They are not interested in asserting their will or exercising freedoms. And, if anyone built such robots, people wouldn't buy them.
We are just now entering the bottom of the geometric growth of installed robotics and artificial intelligence. It should be expected that the process will be messy and contentious. However, it will take place. In fact, between 2000 and 2005, Japan’s growth in robot exports was increasing at a rate of 20% to 35% per year. While the global economic slowdown hit robot sales hard, the recovery will begin in 2010 and is expected to be significant.
It is only a matter of time before this level of growth will over-run a GDP per Capita growth rate of under 3%. Conservatively, we would expect household income to double by 2020 and quadruple by 2030. For those who wish to enter the Information Age knowledge professions the increase in standard of living will be even more pronounced and happen even faster. When we state that people who choose to enter a knowledge profession today will be earning 250K within three years and 500K within five years, that is not hyperbole or hype. It is simply what knowledge professions will be earning in the Information Age.
So, while significantly less dramatic that what is predicted by Singularitarians, we still expect a dramatic and positive next twenty years. Singularitarians seem to make the admirable error of assuming that everything that can go right, will go right. It won’t. However, much of it will, though generally later than expected. Even now, we are beginning to see that S-Curves aggregate to make a Super S-Curve, not a geometric curve. However, the generally pessimistic view of the future promulgated by many of the more mainstream media is even more unrealistic. As Polymathica grows and expands the assumption that an Information Age Income Explosion is imminent is critical to proper planning.
In addition to inviting comments on our blog, we will be setting up a topic on the discussion board of our facebook group. Please follow us here and on facebook.
Monday, April 5, 2010
The Cultural Calculus: An Example of Polymathic Methodological Transfer
Psychologist Charles Spearman hypothesized that for every intellectual task the performance of an individual is determined by traits specific to the task (s) and traits general to all or most intellectual tasks (g). Suppose we chose 100 people at random and gave them a test on number progressions. A performance rank order would result. Now suppose we gave the same 100 people an analogy test. There are three distinct relationships the two results could have to one another.
The first is that they are inversely correlated. In other words, a person who scored in the top 50 on one test would have a greater than random chance of scoring in the lower 50 on the second test. This is the constant intelligence theory that says that everyone has about the same amount of intelligence and if a person is better than average in one task it is because they are applying more of their intelligence to it. Consequently, they have less to apply to other tasks and they can be expected to score below average on those tests.
The next theory is the random theory. In other words, g=0 and all the proficiency a person has in a specific intellectual task is related to traits that only affect that intellectual task. If Spearman is correct, the rank order of a person on one test will have predictive value on the other test. The greater the predictive value the more g dominates the explanation of intellectual performance.
The problem of determining the predictive value between many tests was a difficult one and Spearman developed Factor Analysis to deal with it. It turned out that Spearman was correct. In fact, it turned out that g explained most of the difference in intellectual performance between people. Thus, a new and more rigorous definition of IQ was born. IQ is a measure of g, which is extracted from the results of questions diagnostic of many types of intellectual tasks.
Factor Analysis has been utilized polymathically in geochemistry, ecology, hydrochemistry and economics. Marketing analysis has used a simpler form by creating correlation matrices. Here we are going to give an example of an intentional rather than accidental use of polymathy to develop a Cultural Calculus. In doing so, we will provide a theoretical basis for a new way to evaluate history, understand the present and contemplate the future.
Suppose we gave a number of people a questionnaire that explored their attitude toward abortion. We could then assign values to each person with 1 representing someone who believes that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances and that anyone involved in an abortion should be considered to have committed or been accessory to murder and 100 representing someone who believes that abortion should be legal at all points in a pregnancy and, nobody, including the father or the courts, my abridge that right. We would expect that this questionnaire would result in a bimodal population if plotted on a graph where the x axis is the value between 1 and 100 and the y axis is the number of people with the specific rating. We would expect the left mode to be represented by people who believe that abortion should be illegal except in the cases of incest or rape or to save the life of the mother. The right mode, we expect would be centered on people who believe that abortion should be legal in the first trimester of a pregnancy.
Now suppose we gave the same people a questionnaire that explored their attitude about welfare. We, again, would expect a bimodal population with one group centering around a view that welfare should be limited, locally administered and with significant assistance from the philanthropic and religious communities and the other group centering around a federally mandated suite of government entitlement programs.
Let us expand our graph to three axes, with x being the rating on the abortion scale, y being the rating on the welfare scale and z being the number of people at each particular (x,y). We believe that now we will find a conical mound centering around those who take a low numbered position with regard to both abortion and welfare and another centering around those who take a high numbered position to both. We are not sure whether those not among the two major nodes will be evenly distributed or if there would be one or more smaller nodes. Some people might argue that the graph would have more than two modes. Others may argue that concentrations would be small and the majority of people would reside on a 100 X 100 plane of relatively little topography. We are unaware of any studies of this nature and, consequently, the disagreement cannot be definitively resolved.
Since very few people can visualize hyperdimensional objects, we are going to add one more questionnaire and then stop. Now we will include a questionnaire on the degree to which government should abridge the freedom of action of citizens and enterprises for the sake of preserving the ecological status quo. At the low end will be people who believe that the government has no right to abridge such actions at all and on the other extreme are people who believe that the government has an absolute obligation to proscribe and assess fines for any act that may disturb the current environmental conditions. Now, since we need the z axis for our third questionnaire, we will need to do this a little differently. We will make a volume comprised of 100 X 100 X 100 = 1,000,000 cubes each of which represents one unique (x,y,z) and capable of holding many dots. We believe that this exercise would render two very dense centers surrounded by a halo of loci of decreasing density as the radius from the center increases. For those familiar with astronomy, it would look like two globular clusters, one centered around moderate positions in favor of abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions and one that centered around moderate positions against abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions. Again, we are unsure whether there would be smaller clusters at different locations.
We can imagine that the same questionnaires are given to a statistically valid and consistent group of people over time. We now can see our concept space evolving. Perhaps clusters will become more dense or less dense. Perhaps a piece of a cluster will break off and travel to a different locus, picking up members as it goes. Perhaps portions of our concept space will develop a new attractor and start growing and increasing in density spontaneously. Perhaps we can see the distance between the two major clusters become closer or farther apart. In other words, we will be watching a movie of cultural fragmentation, coalescence and evolution.
Of course, Cultural Analysts, well versed in the more complex mathematical methods required to extract meaning from a larger number questionnaires will take this several steps further than we will here. They will create hyperdimensional models that will move, transform and evolve in ways that can only be approximately represented in three dimensional models. Using factor analysis, they can create a kind of central definition of culture, perhaps extracting central or core factors that define each culture. Even though not easily visualized, characteristic statements, then, can be made about the conformation of the concept space and how it has changed over time.
Not only is this an example of methodology transfer being utilized in the Polymathic Method, it also allows us to provide a more complete explanation of the meaning of Polymathica. If questionnaires were given to people to assess their sense of refinement and erudition, we consider it obvious that few people would find themselves in the 90’s on a scale of 1 to 100. Most of civilization has become rather crass, crude, hedonistic, vulgar and anti-intellectual. Consequently, Polymathica is creating an attractor at one end of the refinement and erudition dimensions of concept space that, we hope will begin to grow through accretion and become more defined through shared cultural literacy.
This post also gives us a common pattern language with which to discuss issues of culture.
The first is that they are inversely correlated. In other words, a person who scored in the top 50 on one test would have a greater than random chance of scoring in the lower 50 on the second test. This is the constant intelligence theory that says that everyone has about the same amount of intelligence and if a person is better than average in one task it is because they are applying more of their intelligence to it. Consequently, they have less to apply to other tasks and they can be expected to score below average on those tests.
The next theory is the random theory. In other words, g=0 and all the proficiency a person has in a specific intellectual task is related to traits that only affect that intellectual task. If Spearman is correct, the rank order of a person on one test will have predictive value on the other test. The greater the predictive value the more g dominates the explanation of intellectual performance.
The problem of determining the predictive value between many tests was a difficult one and Spearman developed Factor Analysis to deal with it. It turned out that Spearman was correct. In fact, it turned out that g explained most of the difference in intellectual performance between people. Thus, a new and more rigorous definition of IQ was born. IQ is a measure of g, which is extracted from the results of questions diagnostic of many types of intellectual tasks.
Factor Analysis has been utilized polymathically in geochemistry, ecology, hydrochemistry and economics. Marketing analysis has used a simpler form by creating correlation matrices. Here we are going to give an example of an intentional rather than accidental use of polymathy to develop a Cultural Calculus. In doing so, we will provide a theoretical basis for a new way to evaluate history, understand the present and contemplate the future.
Suppose we gave a number of people a questionnaire that explored their attitude toward abortion. We could then assign values to each person with 1 representing someone who believes that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances and that anyone involved in an abortion should be considered to have committed or been accessory to murder and 100 representing someone who believes that abortion should be legal at all points in a pregnancy and, nobody, including the father or the courts, my abridge that right. We would expect that this questionnaire would result in a bimodal population if plotted on a graph where the x axis is the value between 1 and 100 and the y axis is the number of people with the specific rating. We would expect the left mode to be represented by people who believe that abortion should be illegal except in the cases of incest or rape or to save the life of the mother. The right mode, we expect would be centered on people who believe that abortion should be legal in the first trimester of a pregnancy.
Now suppose we gave the same people a questionnaire that explored their attitude about welfare. We, again, would expect a bimodal population with one group centering around a view that welfare should be limited, locally administered and with significant assistance from the philanthropic and religious communities and the other group centering around a federally mandated suite of government entitlement programs.
Let us expand our graph to three axes, with x being the rating on the abortion scale, y being the rating on the welfare scale and z being the number of people at each particular (x,y). We believe that now we will find a conical mound centering around those who take a low numbered position with regard to both abortion and welfare and another centering around those who take a high numbered position to both. We are not sure whether those not among the two major nodes will be evenly distributed or if there would be one or more smaller nodes. Some people might argue that the graph would have more than two modes. Others may argue that concentrations would be small and the majority of people would reside on a 100 X 100 plane of relatively little topography. We are unaware of any studies of this nature and, consequently, the disagreement cannot be definitively resolved.
Since very few people can visualize hyperdimensional objects, we are going to add one more questionnaire and then stop. Now we will include a questionnaire on the degree to which government should abridge the freedom of action of citizens and enterprises for the sake of preserving the ecological status quo. At the low end will be people who believe that the government has no right to abridge such actions at all and on the other extreme are people who believe that the government has an absolute obligation to proscribe and assess fines for any act that may disturb the current environmental conditions. Now, since we need the z axis for our third questionnaire, we will need to do this a little differently. We will make a volume comprised of 100 X 100 X 100 = 1,000,000 cubes each of which represents one unique (x,y,z) and capable of holding many dots. We believe that this exercise would render two very dense centers surrounded by a halo of loci of decreasing density as the radius from the center increases. For those familiar with astronomy, it would look like two globular clusters, one centered around moderate positions in favor of abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions and one that centered around moderate positions against abortion, welfare and environmental restrictions. Again, we are unsure whether there would be smaller clusters at different locations.
We can imagine that the same questionnaires are given to a statistically valid and consistent group of people over time. We now can see our concept space evolving. Perhaps clusters will become more dense or less dense. Perhaps a piece of a cluster will break off and travel to a different locus, picking up members as it goes. Perhaps portions of our concept space will develop a new attractor and start growing and increasing in density spontaneously. Perhaps we can see the distance between the two major clusters become closer or farther apart. In other words, we will be watching a movie of cultural fragmentation, coalescence and evolution.
Of course, Cultural Analysts, well versed in the more complex mathematical methods required to extract meaning from a larger number questionnaires will take this several steps further than we will here. They will create hyperdimensional models that will move, transform and evolve in ways that can only be approximately represented in three dimensional models. Using factor analysis, they can create a kind of central definition of culture, perhaps extracting central or core factors that define each culture. Even though not easily visualized, characteristic statements, then, can be made about the conformation of the concept space and how it has changed over time.
Not only is this an example of methodology transfer being utilized in the Polymathic Method, it also allows us to provide a more complete explanation of the meaning of Polymathica. If questionnaires were given to people to assess their sense of refinement and erudition, we consider it obvious that few people would find themselves in the 90’s on a scale of 1 to 100. Most of civilization has become rather crass, crude, hedonistic, vulgar and anti-intellectual. Consequently, Polymathica is creating an attractor at one end of the refinement and erudition dimensions of concept space that, we hope will begin to grow through accretion and become more defined through shared cultural literacy.
This post also gives us a common pattern language with which to discuss issues of culture.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Educating the Polymath
At first blush, the concept of educating a Polymath may seem oxymoronic. After all, Polymaths must first and foremost be autodidacts. While they may engage in directed learning for specific skill acquisition the choice is inherently subject specific rather than polymathic. In other words, there really isn’t any significant difference between “Web Page Design for Polymaths” and “Web Page Design for Everyone Else.”
For the most part, polymathy is resident in the synthesis, not in the individual courses of study. Consequently, everything we know about higher education is, at best, tangentially applicable to our needs. In our post, The Research Polymath, we stated that Research Polymathy should take place outside of traditional Academia due to the hostility that the various institutions have toward the practice of Polymathy. Additionally, because we are going to need to start from scratch with a pedagogical design, the actual structure of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will undoubtedly be incompatible in its structure with the traditional colleges and universities.
Because the Polymathic Method is inherently autodidactic, one of the cornerstones of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will be the certification of autonomously learned material. It will often be the case that those who interact with a Polymath will want an outside assessment of their knowledge and skills. These may include prospective investors, research funding agencies and individuals or potential collaborators. The certification of specific knowledge and skill sets by Polymathic Institute Senior Members will amplify the opportunities to utilize credit received in a traditional university environment and proficiency testing services, such as CLEP to meet the knowledge and skill acquisition requirements of the chosen degree program.
In addition to assisting in assessing course equivalent proficiencies, a Polymathic Institute should certify at the degree level, as well. Specific certifications may include various Masters and Doctoral level categories. We imagine the most widely acquired would be a Masters of Enterprise Polymathy. For many pundits, talkers, bloggers and community designers, a Masters of Social Polymathy may be useful. For Research Polymaths, a PhD of Polymathy may demonstrate to potential constituencies and markets that an advanced level of proficiency in the Polymathic Method has been attained.
The certification process we imagine would involve two or three steps. The first step would be to interact with a certification design consultant who will assist the student in defining the degree certification to be acquired. In many cases, this step can be abbreviated or even completely eliminated by accepting a previously designed certification, such as a Masters in Enterprise Polymathy. However, it would also allow for a ‘design your own degree’ option.
The second step is to obtain evidence of acquisition of a basic knowledge and skill set characteristic of the certification being acquired. This will involve accumulating transcripts from traditional universities already attended, taking CLEP assessments and demonstration of proficiency made directly to the Polymathic Institute or other non-traditional institutions, such as Project Polymath courses.
Third, because a Polymathic Institute will be conferring graduate, rather than baccalaureate, level certification, a thesis will be produced and defended.
An important benefit of attending a first tier University is the network of contacts that are made. While the benefit is informal at a traditional institution of higher education, it will be something more properly formalized at a Polymathic Institute. In other words, the primary value of matriculating at a Polymathic Institute may, in the end, be vested in the alumni association. We have seen in several of our posts that the adage, ‘United we stand, divided we fall’ is central to the ultimate success of Polymathy as a set of viable career options.
Lastly, we assume, especially for the Doctoral level candidates, that a thesis advisor/mentor will be acquired through the Institute. The advisor, as in traditional educational institutions, will suggest approaches, knowledge and skill acquisition requirements and strategies and provide critiques intended to lead to an eventual successful thesis defense.
As we have stated in the past, we are firmly supportive of Project Polymath and their efforts to create a Polymathic University. It appears from their current direction that they can, in the very near future, provide an additional source of training and proficiency assessment for the Polymathic Institute certification candidate. We sincerely hope that the participants in a Polymathic Institute can bring value to Project Polymath, as well.
We will not make a distinction between our Founders’ Circle, the Academy and Alumni association, and execute them all under the general rubric of Polymathica Institute. We do so because the term 'institute' may refer to an institution of learning and research or an institution promoting a cause. In addition to providing content, networks, products and services to a community of refinement and erudition, Polymathica Institute will do both of these.
The structure of the Academy is totally new, or, one may argue, as ancient as the Academy of Plato. As we have stated earlier, there will be a nominal general access charge to enter the Institute and, then, each individual educational process will be negotiated between a student Member and a Senior Member qualified to provide the service. The only direct involvement of the Polymathica Institute in the Academy will be the general oversight of organizational development and the credentialing process to assure that the various credentials conferred maintain the highest level quality and, thereby, reputation.
We expect that the earliest students to matriculate in the Polymathica Academy will be from one of three categories. First will be individuals of means who want to be able to say, “I am a Polymath and I have a piece of paper to prove it.” They should also enjoy the challenge of meeting the requirements of receiving the certification. Second will be young people who, because of their brilliance, have not thrived in traditional educational institutions and wish to pursue a non-traditional polymathic career path more suitable to their intellectual abilities. Third are career changers who realize that they, because of their intellectual abilities, interests and polymathism, are not likely to progress much past lower, technical management levels in traditional, Industrial Age enterprises.
There is, of course, the matter of the cost of the credentialing. This is difficult to determine with precision, because each phase of the process will be individually negotiated and the amount of outside help each student will require will be different. The cost of access to the Polymathica Institute over a two year certification program will be about $1,500. A reasonable cost of proficiency assessment may be another $1,500 - $2,500. CLEP assessments cost $72 ($77 after July 2010) each. Various universities offer college level credit via assessment of 'life experience.' Additionally, we anticipate that some Polymathica Institute Members may be qualified to write and administer a private knowledge acquisition assessment. Custom made tests are likely to be expensive. However, ones that are commonly needed, such as various areas of Statistics, may be relatively inexpensive. We would expect a thesis defense to cost between $1,500 and $5,000 depending upon its complexity. The cost of a mentor/advisor may be another $3,000-$5,000. PhD level thesis defense and mentor/advisor arrangements could be expected to be in the high end of the range with Masters of Enterprise Polymathy could be expected to be in the lower end of the range.
This suggests that a graduate level certification in Polymathy may cost between $5,000 and $15,000. This compares with the average cost of an MBA of $40,000. As to unaccredited educational services, The Singularity University offers a 9-day executive program for $15,000 and a 10 week summer Graduate Studies Program for $25,000. So, we see that the Academy, by its organizational structure, will be able to provide student Members with cost effective educational credentials and Senior Members with a good professional income.
As we have mentioned in a prior post, we strongly encourage individuals of means to join the Polymathica Institute and fund scholarship and polymathic research. While Polymathica is not properly organized to create and administer such programs, its Members can and should create them.
Because every credential is, in a fashion, custom made and, in our opinion, any attempts at obtaining accreditation from a traditional agency would be futile, we can begin the Academy as soon as we have willing students and mentors within the Institute. If you are interested in gaining Polymath certification or providing graduate level proficiency or academic services, contact Fellows@polymathica.com. As soon as there is sufficient interest, we will create a task force to implement the Academy.
For the most part, polymathy is resident in the synthesis, not in the individual courses of study. Consequently, everything we know about higher education is, at best, tangentially applicable to our needs. In our post, The Research Polymath, we stated that Research Polymathy should take place outside of traditional Academia due to the hostility that the various institutions have toward the practice of Polymathy. Additionally, because we are going to need to start from scratch with a pedagogical design, the actual structure of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will undoubtedly be incompatible in its structure with the traditional colleges and universities.
Because the Polymathic Method is inherently autodidactic, one of the cornerstones of an Academy of a Polymathic Institute will be the certification of autonomously learned material. It will often be the case that those who interact with a Polymath will want an outside assessment of their knowledge and skills. These may include prospective investors, research funding agencies and individuals or potential collaborators. The certification of specific knowledge and skill sets by Polymathic Institute Senior Members will amplify the opportunities to utilize credit received in a traditional university environment and proficiency testing services, such as CLEP to meet the knowledge and skill acquisition requirements of the chosen degree program.
In addition to assisting in assessing course equivalent proficiencies, a Polymathic Institute should certify at the degree level, as well. Specific certifications may include various Masters and Doctoral level categories. We imagine the most widely acquired would be a Masters of Enterprise Polymathy. For many pundits, talkers, bloggers and community designers, a Masters of Social Polymathy may be useful. For Research Polymaths, a PhD of Polymathy may demonstrate to potential constituencies and markets that an advanced level of proficiency in the Polymathic Method has been attained.
The certification process we imagine would involve two or three steps. The first step would be to interact with a certification design consultant who will assist the student in defining the degree certification to be acquired. In many cases, this step can be abbreviated or even completely eliminated by accepting a previously designed certification, such as a Masters in Enterprise Polymathy. However, it would also allow for a ‘design your own degree’ option.
The second step is to obtain evidence of acquisition of a basic knowledge and skill set characteristic of the certification being acquired. This will involve accumulating transcripts from traditional universities already attended, taking CLEP assessments and demonstration of proficiency made directly to the Polymathic Institute or other non-traditional institutions, such as Project Polymath courses.
Third, because a Polymathic Institute will be conferring graduate, rather than baccalaureate, level certification, a thesis will be produced and defended.
An important benefit of attending a first tier University is the network of contacts that are made. While the benefit is informal at a traditional institution of higher education, it will be something more properly formalized at a Polymathic Institute. In other words, the primary value of matriculating at a Polymathic Institute may, in the end, be vested in the alumni association. We have seen in several of our posts that the adage, ‘United we stand, divided we fall’ is central to the ultimate success of Polymathy as a set of viable career options.
Lastly, we assume, especially for the Doctoral level candidates, that a thesis advisor/mentor will be acquired through the Institute. The advisor, as in traditional educational institutions, will suggest approaches, knowledge and skill acquisition requirements and strategies and provide critiques intended to lead to an eventual successful thesis defense.
As we have stated in the past, we are firmly supportive of Project Polymath and their efforts to create a Polymathic University. It appears from their current direction that they can, in the very near future, provide an additional source of training and proficiency assessment for the Polymathic Institute certification candidate. We sincerely hope that the participants in a Polymathic Institute can bring value to Project Polymath, as well.
We will not make a distinction between our Founders’ Circle, the Academy and Alumni association, and execute them all under the general rubric of Polymathica Institute. We do so because the term 'institute' may refer to an institution of learning and research or an institution promoting a cause. In addition to providing content, networks, products and services to a community of refinement and erudition, Polymathica Institute will do both of these.
The structure of the Academy is totally new, or, one may argue, as ancient as the Academy of Plato. As we have stated earlier, there will be a nominal general access charge to enter the Institute and, then, each individual educational process will be negotiated between a student Member and a Senior Member qualified to provide the service. The only direct involvement of the Polymathica Institute in the Academy will be the general oversight of organizational development and the credentialing process to assure that the various credentials conferred maintain the highest level quality and, thereby, reputation.
We expect that the earliest students to matriculate in the Polymathica Academy will be from one of three categories. First will be individuals of means who want to be able to say, “I am a Polymath and I have a piece of paper to prove it.” They should also enjoy the challenge of meeting the requirements of receiving the certification. Second will be young people who, because of their brilliance, have not thrived in traditional educational institutions and wish to pursue a non-traditional polymathic career path more suitable to their intellectual abilities. Third are career changers who realize that they, because of their intellectual abilities, interests and polymathism, are not likely to progress much past lower, technical management levels in traditional, Industrial Age enterprises.
There is, of course, the matter of the cost of the credentialing. This is difficult to determine with precision, because each phase of the process will be individually negotiated and the amount of outside help each student will require will be different. The cost of access to the Polymathica Institute over a two year certification program will be about $1,500. A reasonable cost of proficiency assessment may be another $1,500 - $2,500. CLEP assessments cost $72 ($77 after July 2010) each. Various universities offer college level credit via assessment of 'life experience.' Additionally, we anticipate that some Polymathica Institute Members may be qualified to write and administer a private knowledge acquisition assessment. Custom made tests are likely to be expensive. However, ones that are commonly needed, such as various areas of Statistics, may be relatively inexpensive. We would expect a thesis defense to cost between $1,500 and $5,000 depending upon its complexity. The cost of a mentor/advisor may be another $3,000-$5,000. PhD level thesis defense and mentor/advisor arrangements could be expected to be in the high end of the range with Masters of Enterprise Polymathy could be expected to be in the lower end of the range.
This suggests that a graduate level certification in Polymathy may cost between $5,000 and $15,000. This compares with the average cost of an MBA of $40,000. As to unaccredited educational services, The Singularity University offers a 9-day executive program for $15,000 and a 10 week summer Graduate Studies Program for $25,000. So, we see that the Academy, by its organizational structure, will be able to provide student Members with cost effective educational credentials and Senior Members with a good professional income.
As we have mentioned in a prior post, we strongly encourage individuals of means to join the Polymathica Institute and fund scholarship and polymathic research. While Polymathica is not properly organized to create and administer such programs, its Members can and should create them.
Because every credential is, in a fashion, custom made and, in our opinion, any attempts at obtaining accreditation from a traditional agency would be futile, we can begin the Academy as soon as we have willing students and mentors within the Institute. If you are interested in gaining Polymath certification or providing graduate level proficiency or academic services, contact Fellows@polymathica.com. As soon as there is sufficient interest, we will create a task force to implement the Academy.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Polymathica Vision
Polymathica is a global community of refinement and erudition. It is small now, but it is growing. The core of our growth strategy is the principle that people attract appropriate content and content attracts appropriate people. It is our belief that the end result, in about two years, will be a website, in many ways similar to Yahoo!, MSN.com, AOL.com, iGoogle, or Go.com, that will provide its approximately 2.5 million subscribers with print, audio and video content, social and professional networks, educational and career opportunities, products and services. This content will be notable in its refinement and erudition and should attract refined, erudite subscribers.
We believe that Polymathica is part of a trend away from ‘one site fits all’ homepages. As Internet delivered audio and video content emerges, about 10% of the Internet population will diverge into values based communities such as the 300,791 subscribers of Gaia.com. About 5% will diverge into intellectually sophisticated communities. These communities will be fuzzy sets. In other words, some subscribers will be completely immersed in the community while other subscribers may only connect with one function. Content, networks, products and services that were created primarily to serve the Polymathica community may find customers elsewhere as well.
We are at the very beginning of the community building process. We are currently growing primarily through member referrals. People may become a ‘Polymathican’ by joining our facebook group, going to Polymathica.com and subscribing to our mailing list, or by following us on this blog. Community growth is greatly assisted by inviting friends or acquaintances who are, in your assessment, inclined toward refinement and erudition. Consistent with the theory that content attracts people and people attract content, when you invite someone to Polymathica, you are assisting in the process of attracting the kind of content, networks, products and services you desire.
We have created, for those who want to provide content, networks, products and services to a refined, erudite community a Polymathica Founders’ Group. If this interests you, simply click on the Founders Group link.
We believe that Polymathica is part of a trend away from ‘one site fits all’ homepages. As Internet delivered audio and video content emerges, about 10% of the Internet population will diverge into values based communities such as the 300,791 subscribers of Gaia.com. About 5% will diverge into intellectually sophisticated communities. These communities will be fuzzy sets. In other words, some subscribers will be completely immersed in the community while other subscribers may only connect with one function. Content, networks, products and services that were created primarily to serve the Polymathica community may find customers elsewhere as well.
We are at the very beginning of the community building process. We are currently growing primarily through member referrals. People may become a ‘Polymathican’ by joining our facebook group, going to Polymathica.com and subscribing to our mailing list, or by following us on this blog. Community growth is greatly assisted by inviting friends or acquaintances who are, in your assessment, inclined toward refinement and erudition. Consistent with the theory that content attracts people and people attract content, when you invite someone to Polymathica, you are assisting in the process of attracting the kind of content, networks, products and services you desire.
We have created, for those who want to provide content, networks, products and services to a refined, erudite community a Polymathica Founders’ Group. If this interests you, simply click on the Founders Group link.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Polymathica Bloggers and Talkers
Based upon research by Hollingworth, Simonton, Dennissen, et al, we conclude that the upper five percent of the population in intellectual and cultural sophistication does not have sufficient access to appropriate news, analysis and commentary. This is a market of approximately 35 million English speakers that, in the Industrial Age, was left substantially underserved. Of these, at least 2.5 million will self-identify as holding the values of refinement and erudition. One of the primary purposes of Polymathica is to create a place similar to The Huffington Post or Townhall.com. However, in our case, rather than being for liberal or conservative news, analysis and commentary, it will provide a broad spectrum of topics presented with refinment and erudition.
Because Polymathica subscribers are erudite, they are also prodigious consumers of information compared to the general population. Consequently, Polymathica, once constructed, can support a broad spectrum of content. By way of example, 2.5 million people creating three page views per day at $.01 per page view will create a little over $27 million of ad revenue per year, which, at Technorati’s estimate of top blogger income of $200,000 per year will support 136 top bloggers. This is sufficient to satisfy the expectations of even the most engaged Polymathica subscriber. However, we believe that Polymathica will be able to support an even larger population of top bloggers.
Bloggers are currently morphing into media personalities and media personalities into bloggers. In the near future, instigated by the emergence of Internet delivery of audio and video content, people who currently are bloggers, columnists, radio talk show hosts, television news personalities, etc. will begin to consider themselves as multimedia personalities. Some will write books. Some will tweet. Some will produce an audio news magazine. Others will produce a video round table discussion. Each will consider the vast and ever expanding array of technologies for delivering their thoughts to the market and choose the ones that work best for them. Rush Limbaugh attempted television and failed. Bill O’Rielly tried radio and failed.
This means, that, because their income is coming from several sources, the number of top bloggers that Polymathica will eventually be able to support is greater than 136. Also, many bloggers who cater to the upper 5% of the population in intellectual and cultural sophistication will find readership in the 90% - 95% of this population that is not a Polymathcia subscriber. We also emphasize, as is the case with the Huffington Post and Townhall.com, that there will be a place for what Technorati refers to as the ‘Citizen Blogger.’ In other words, in the Information Age, people will interact with their community in many ways, one of which will be a blog. It is not done primarily for profit, but rather serves as a super-elaborated personal profile page. Because non-professional bloggers are perfectly capable of making cogent observations, the line between citizen blogger and professional blogger is vague.
The Internet tradition today is that blogs are ad supported and audio commentary is a premium membership feature. The typical 24/7 membership fee is between $30 and $55 per year. As Internet radio becomes the norm, we expect the cost of these premium memberships to go down, probably to about $10 to $15 per year. In this way, people will custom design their news, analysis and commentary access. It may include a video hard news feed, an audio hard news feed, a half dozen audio and video analysis and commentary products, another ten or twelve subscriptions in the Humanities, Science and Technology, Business, Sports, Fashion, Lifestyles, and Spirituality, along with free ad supported print content.
In conclusion, we believe that Polymathica will be of sufficient size to provide its subscribers with a broad spectrum of blogs, audiocasts, videocasts, produced video content, etc. as well as a social architecture that will allow them to share and discuss what they have read, heard, viewed or thought. It won't be easy, but it will be worthwhile for those of us who have found current options sophomoric and superficial. We heartily encourage you to join our facebook page or follow us here.
Because Polymathica subscribers are erudite, they are also prodigious consumers of information compared to the general population. Consequently, Polymathica, once constructed, can support a broad spectrum of content. By way of example, 2.5 million people creating three page views per day at $.01 per page view will create a little over $27 million of ad revenue per year, which, at Technorati’s estimate of top blogger income of $200,000 per year will support 136 top bloggers. This is sufficient to satisfy the expectations of even the most engaged Polymathica subscriber. However, we believe that Polymathica will be able to support an even larger population of top bloggers.
Bloggers are currently morphing into media personalities and media personalities into bloggers. In the near future, instigated by the emergence of Internet delivery of audio and video content, people who currently are bloggers, columnists, radio talk show hosts, television news personalities, etc. will begin to consider themselves as multimedia personalities. Some will write books. Some will tweet. Some will produce an audio news magazine. Others will produce a video round table discussion. Each will consider the vast and ever expanding array of technologies for delivering their thoughts to the market and choose the ones that work best for them. Rush Limbaugh attempted television and failed. Bill O’Rielly tried radio and failed.
This means, that, because their income is coming from several sources, the number of top bloggers that Polymathica will eventually be able to support is greater than 136. Also, many bloggers who cater to the upper 5% of the population in intellectual and cultural sophistication will find readership in the 90% - 95% of this population that is not a Polymathcia subscriber. We also emphasize, as is the case with the Huffington Post and Townhall.com, that there will be a place for what Technorati refers to as the ‘Citizen Blogger.’ In other words, in the Information Age, people will interact with their community in many ways, one of which will be a blog. It is not done primarily for profit, but rather serves as a super-elaborated personal profile page. Because non-professional bloggers are perfectly capable of making cogent observations, the line between citizen blogger and professional blogger is vague.
The Internet tradition today is that blogs are ad supported and audio commentary is a premium membership feature. The typical 24/7 membership fee is between $30 and $55 per year. As Internet radio becomes the norm, we expect the cost of these premium memberships to go down, probably to about $10 to $15 per year. In this way, people will custom design their news, analysis and commentary access. It may include a video hard news feed, an audio hard news feed, a half dozen audio and video analysis and commentary products, another ten or twelve subscriptions in the Humanities, Science and Technology, Business, Sports, Fashion, Lifestyles, and Spirituality, along with free ad supported print content.
In conclusion, we believe that Polymathica will be of sufficient size to provide its subscribers with a broad spectrum of blogs, audiocasts, videocasts, produced video content, etc. as well as a social architecture that will allow them to share and discuss what they have read, heard, viewed or thought. It won't be easy, but it will be worthwhile for those of us who have found current options sophomoric and superficial. We heartily encourage you to join our facebook page or follow us here.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Polymathica TV
Soon, radio and television will move to the Internet. Actually, to a limited degree, it already has. This will be good news for most people, but really great news for polymathic intellectuals. It means that refined, erudite television programming will become economically viable and, therefore, available in large doses, 24/7. It also means that a whole new community of producers of refined, erudite television will emerge. What is astounding is how completely Internet television and specifically Polymathica television will change the economic dynamics of the industry. Today, television programming requires massive audiences in order to survive. USA Network’s The Starter Wife was canceled due to poor ratings despite routinely attracting audiences of 2.5 million. Consequently, when new show concepts are considered, appeal to large demographic audiences is never far from the producers’ thoughts.
Internet television can survive on 100,000 viewers or less. The cost of producing a serviceable one hour program has been decreasing due to improving technologies. Today, costs in the $200K to $300K per episode are not impossible as long as the producers stay away from high cost talent, special effects or sets. At a download fee of two dollars, break even is between 100K and 150K viewers. Television that is produced with the Polymathica audience in mind will surely find secondary markets. Consequently, actual viewers required to sustain a refined, erudite show on Polymathica may be no more than 50K to 75K.
The critical difference between the old and the new is that broadcast, cable and satellite Networks have a limited number of time slots to fill. If, in the experience of the Network, the performance of a show is below the potential for the time slot, they will cancel the show, even if the producers are making a profit. Polymathica Television, however, has no such limitation. Its only concern is that it doesn’t oversupply the market and thereby cause the producers to lose money. If the average Polymathica subscriber acquires ten hours per week of content and the average show requires 100K of viewers per episode, a naïve calculation would conclude that Polymathica can support 2.5 million X 10 / 100K = 250 hours of production per week. Comparisons can become complicated, but this is generally equivalent to saying that Polymathica Television, in pre-Internet terminology, could support about six channels of programming. Another way of looking at it, an economically viable Polymathica show will only require 4% of the subscribers to watch.
It will, however, not work that way. Pareto and entertainment Darwinism will take over and the fittest programs will get more than 4% of the viewers, thereby eliminating some of the marginal ones. To a degree, large, mass audience programming will impinge upon the viewing time of more quintessentially Polymathica programming. The problem is a complex one. However, a back of the envelope monte carlo simulation suggests that the actual number of hours of production per week that can be supported by Polymathica will be about 120. Since all of it is community appropriate, it should be more than sufficient to produce a golden age of erudite television.
Polymathica is creating a community in advance of the content, products and services that will satisfy the appetites of the community. Particularly visionary Members may choose to create the content in advance of the community. Those so interested should consider joining our Founders’ Group. We are behind others. There is a Gaia.com. It does not yet have television, but it will. It already has some of the group specific products and services being advertised. We are behind them, but this is not a race. Gaia.com is good to look at because it is where we should be in six months.
Polymathica is just now embarking on an exciting journey. Simply by clicking the facebook ‘join’ button, subscribing to our blog or visiting Polymathica.com and subscribing to our mailing list, you can join us. It will be a lot of fun and you will meet some wonderful and amazing people.
Internet television can survive on 100,000 viewers or less. The cost of producing a serviceable one hour program has been decreasing due to improving technologies. Today, costs in the $200K to $300K per episode are not impossible as long as the producers stay away from high cost talent, special effects or sets. At a download fee of two dollars, break even is between 100K and 150K viewers. Television that is produced with the Polymathica audience in mind will surely find secondary markets. Consequently, actual viewers required to sustain a refined, erudite show on Polymathica may be no more than 50K to 75K.
The critical difference between the old and the new is that broadcast, cable and satellite Networks have a limited number of time slots to fill. If, in the experience of the Network, the performance of a show is below the potential for the time slot, they will cancel the show, even if the producers are making a profit. Polymathica Television, however, has no such limitation. Its only concern is that it doesn’t oversupply the market and thereby cause the producers to lose money. If the average Polymathica subscriber acquires ten hours per week of content and the average show requires 100K of viewers per episode, a naïve calculation would conclude that Polymathica can support 2.5 million X 10 / 100K = 250 hours of production per week. Comparisons can become complicated, but this is generally equivalent to saying that Polymathica Television, in pre-Internet terminology, could support about six channels of programming. Another way of looking at it, an economically viable Polymathica show will only require 4% of the subscribers to watch.
It will, however, not work that way. Pareto and entertainment Darwinism will take over and the fittest programs will get more than 4% of the viewers, thereby eliminating some of the marginal ones. To a degree, large, mass audience programming will impinge upon the viewing time of more quintessentially Polymathica programming. The problem is a complex one. However, a back of the envelope monte carlo simulation suggests that the actual number of hours of production per week that can be supported by Polymathica will be about 120. Since all of it is community appropriate, it should be more than sufficient to produce a golden age of erudite television.
Polymathica is creating a community in advance of the content, products and services that will satisfy the appetites of the community. Particularly visionary Members may choose to create the content in advance of the community. Those so interested should consider joining our Founders’ Group. We are behind others. There is a Gaia.com. It does not yet have television, but it will. It already has some of the group specific products and services being advertised. We are behind them, but this is not a race. Gaia.com is good to look at because it is where we should be in six months.
Polymathica is just now embarking on an exciting journey. Simply by clicking the facebook ‘join’ button, subscribing to our blog or visiting Polymathica.com and subscribing to our mailing list, you can join us. It will be a lot of fun and you will meet some wonderful and amazing people.
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